Archive for January 2009


With 600 miles of trails, it’s no wonder why Winter Park has gained the title of “Mountain Bike Capital USA”. At the resort alone you will find 50 miles of single-track trails accessible via chair lifts and marked with signs identifying skill level. Once at the top of the lifts you may want to stop into the Sunspot for a quick bite to eat while enjoying the 360-degree views of the surrounding mountains. From there you can choose runs like the Upper Arapahoe, the resort’s downhill race course, or wind down The Long Trail for a 7-mile novice ride.

In the Fraser Valley you can enjoy the trails of the Rocky Mountain wilderness while cradled by spectacular mountain views all around. The trails follow babbling brooks, glide through wildflower meadows and trek up rugged mountains.

All throughout the summer, there are races that are open to public and are available to many different skill levels. A majority of the races either start or end at Winter Park Resort, including the finale… The King of the Rockies.

Repairs, rentals and shops are easy to find, whether you are at the resort, or downtown Winter Park. You can also find a wide variety of restaurants and bars, with food that is just as good as it is diverse.

Music sounds better with a backdrop like the Continental Divide, and you just may find out for yourself, as there are music festivals and concerts happening almost every weekend during the Summer. Events like the Jazz Festival and the Food, Wine & Beer Festival may require advance planning for stays in Winter Park.

It would be impossible to cover all of the mountain bike trails of Winter Park and the Fraser Valley in one short article. However, once you get to here, there are a number of free mountain bike trail guides that can be found at most establishments.

Stay just a five minute walk from the base of Winter Park Resort. Slope View Bed and Breakfast offers views of the Continental Divide, unique amenities and a knowledgeable staff. 970-531-2386

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If you are thinking about investing in real estate, you should know that you don’t have to do it alone. There are several that are thinking of the same thing as you, but don’t have the proper resources to begin the process. Building partnerships to invest in real estate is one of the great ways to start building an income off of owning land.

One of the benefits of having someone else investing in real estate with you is that it will allow for any missed parts of the process to be covered. This is especially important in the beginning of the process. If you are unsure of different parts to look at with the real estate investing or if you don’t feel like you can cover all of the areas alone, a partner can help in determining what you are missing. Everything from contract work to needing a third person can be handled and put together from missing links. Two heads are always better than one, especially if you are just beginning.

Having a partner to help you with investing can also be beneficial because of organizational needs that will need to be met. Everything from basic paperwork to taxes and even procedures can be better when handled by two people. You will want to make sure that everything that is set for your profits is understood by both and whatever is missed will be picked up by your partner in order to keep the benefits coming in organized.

By having more than one person involved in the investment of real estate properties, you will be able to set your goals, keep standards and move forward in the business. Finding the right person who has the necessary tools will ensure that you will be successful. Having the right help will provide you the ability to continue to expand your business and make plenty of profit from real estate sales.

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In our article “Define your Goals and Make a Plan” you learned:
How to define your financial and trading goals.
How to select the right market for your trading goals.
What timeframe you should trade in.
The difference between trading styles and how to find the right one for you.
How to create a basic daytrading plan.
Now that you defined your goals and created your daytrading plan, you need to make sure it really works. Thus far everything might look great, but how can you be sure that the day trading system works when you start trading it with real money?
Evaluating a trading system is easier than you think. Below you’ll find 10 Principles of Successful Day Trading Systems that we developed and refined over the last couple of years. You should use these Power Principles to evaluate your trading system, whether you developed it on your own or think about purchasing one. By checking a system against these principles you can dramatically increase the chances of being successful.
Here we go:
Principle #1: Few rules - easy to understand
It may surprise you that the best have less than 10 rules. The more rules you have, the more likely you “curve-fitted” your trading system to the past, and such an over-optimized system is very unlikely to produce profits in real markets.
It’s important that your rules are easy to understand and execute. The markets can behave very wild and move fast, and you won’t have the time to calculate complicated formulas in order to make a trading decision. Think about successful floor traders: The only tool they use is a calculator, and they make thousands of dollars every day.

Principle #2: Trade electronic and liquid markets
I strongly recommend that you trade electronic markets because commissions are lower and you receive instant fills. You need to know as fast as possible if your order was filled and at what price, because based on this information you plan your exit.
You should never place an exit order before you know that your entry order is filled. When you trade open outcry markets (non-electronic) you might have to wait a while before you receive your fill. By that time, the market might have already turned and your profitable trade has turned into a loss!
When trading electronic markets you receive your fills in less than one second and can immediately place your exit orders. Trading liquid markets you can avoid slippage, which will save you hundreds or even thousands of dollars.

Principle #3: Realistic expectations
Losses are part of our business. A trading system that doesn’t have losses is “too good to be true”. Recently I ran into a trading system with a whopping winning percentage of 91% and a drawdown of less than $500. WOW!
When looking at the details it turned out that the daytrading system was only tested on 87 trades and - of course - curve fitted. If you run across trading systems with numbers too good to be true, then it’s probably exactly THAT: Too good to be true.
Usually you can expect the following from a robust trading system:
· A winning percentage of 60-80%
· A profit factor of 1.3 - 2.5
· A maximum drawdown of 10-20% of the yearly profit.
Use these numbers as a rough guideline, and you will easily identify curve fitted systems.
Principle #4: Maintain a healthy balance between risk and reward
Let me give you an example: If you go to a casino and bet everything you have on “red”, then you have a 49% chance of doubling your money and a 51% chance of losing everything. The same applies to trading: You can make a lot of money if you are risking a lot, but then risk of ruin is very high. You need to find a healthy balance between risk and reward.
Let’s say you define “ruin” as losing 20% of your account, and you define “success” as making 20% profits. Having a trading system with past performance results let you calculate the “risk of ruin” and “chance of success”.
Your risk of ruin should be always less than 5%, and your chance of success should be 5-10 times higher, e.g. if your risk of ruin is 4%, then your chance of success should be 40% or higher.

Principle #5: Find a system that produces at least five trades per week
The higher the trading frequency, the smaller is the chances of having a losing month. If you have a trading system that has a winning percentage of 70%, but only produces 1 trade per month, then 1 loser is enough to have a losing month. In this example, you could have several losing months in a row before you finally start making profits. In the meantime, how do you pay for your bills?
If your trading system produces five trades per week, then you have on average 20 trades per month. Having a winning percentage of 70% - your chances of a winning month are extremely high.
And that’s the goal of all traders: Having as many winning months as possible!

Principle #6: Start small - grow big
Your daytrading system should allow you to start small and grow big. A good trading system allows you to start with one or two contracts, and then increases your position as your trading account grows. This is in contrast to many “martingale” trading systems that require increasing position sizes when you are in a losing streak.
You probably heard about this strategy: Double your contracts every time you lose, and one winner will win back all the money you previously lost. It’s not unusual to have 4-5 losing trades in a row, and this would already require to trade 16 contracts after just 4 losses! Trading the e-mini S&P you would then need an account size of at least $63,200, just to meet the margin requirement. That’s why martingale systems don’t work.

Principle #7: Automate your trading
Emotions and human errors are the most common mistakes that traders make. By all means you have to avoid these mistakes. Especially during fast markets, it is crucial that you determine the entry and exit points fast and accurately; otherwise, you might miss a trade or find yourself in a losing position.
Therefore you should automate your trading and look for a trading system that either already is or can be automated. Automating your trading makes it free of human emotion. The buy and sell operations are all automatic, hands-free, with no manual interventions and you can be sure that you make profits when you should according to your plan.

Principle #8: Have a high percentage of winning trades
Your daytrading strategy should produce more than 50% winners. There’s no doubt that daytrading systems with smaller winning percentages can be profitable, too, but the psychological pressure is enormous. Taking 7 losers out of 10 trades and not doubting the system takes great discipline, and many traders can’t stand the pressure. After the sixth loser they start “improving” the system or stop trading it completely.
Especially for beginners it is a big help to gain confidence in your trading and your system if you have a high winning percentage of more than 65%.

Principle #9: Look for a trading system that is tested on at least 200 trades
The more trades you use in your back testing (without curve-fitting), the higher the probabilities that your day trading system will succeed in the future. Look at the following table:
Number of Trades 50 100 200 300 500 Margin of Error 14% 10% 7% 6% 4%
The more trades you have in your back testing, the smaller the margin of error, and the higher the probability of producing profits in the future.

Principle #10: Chose a valid back testing period
I recently saw the following ad: “Since 1994 I’ve taught thousands of traders worldwide a Simple and Reliable E-Mini trading methodology”.
That’s very interesting, because the e-mini S&P was introduced in September 1997, and the e-mini NASDAQ in June 1999, therefore, none of these contracts existed before 1997. What kind of e-mini trading did this vendor teach from 1994-1997???
The same applies to your back testing: If you developed an e-mini S&P trading strategy, then you should back test it only for the past 3-4 years, because even though the contract has existed since 1997, there was practically nobody trading it (see chart below):

As you can see, it’s rather easy to find a trading system that works. By applying this checklist you will easily identify trading systems that work and those that will never make it.

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